What's Next: The X Internet

Get ready to put an "X" through the "WWW" in your Internet address.

Forrester Research (Cambridge, MA) predicts that the Executable Internet, which adopts the XML standard, will become the dominant way we interact with the Net by 2005, replacing browsers and static Web pages with a much richer, interactive experience.

In the first stage of the X Internet, users will download disposable code to their PCs and handheld devices, allowing them to carry on extended conversations with Net services. This is in stark contrast to today's transactional Web services, according to Carl D. Howe, Forrester's research director.

"Today, users are trapped in Web-only thinking," stated Howe. "It's a little like the early days of television when programming was just radio with pictures of announcers. But executable applications will give users tools to experience the Net in a more entertaining and engaging way. Imagine a corporate buyer navigating a virtual marketplace with a Doom-like user interface that makes it as easy as playing a video game."

As the next stage, Forrester sees the emergence of Internet devices that sense, analyze, and control the real world. An Internet-connected thermostat, for example, could allow homeowners to monitor and adjust their house temperatures from thousands of miles away, potentially reducing energy consumption. With cheap chips and a worldwide Internet backbone, nearly every device that runs on electricity will have a wired or wireless Internet connection, Forrester predicts. The result? The number of Internet devices will grow from today's 100 million to more than 14 billion in 2010.

"The extended Internet will reshape technology's role in business," said Howe. "Most firms struggle to understand and act upon what is happening in their business right now. Extended Internet devices will provide real-time information about what is going on as well as knobs and levers for companies to control their businesses. A data center in California might combine real-time information from a utility and customers to reduce the power consumption of their air conditioners when demand peaks - all through Internet devices."

While it's too early to pick winners and losers in the X Internet, Forrester's bets ride on vendors that can market successfully to software developers. Their selections follow four components of executable Net applications:

• Smart code: The only cross-platform, executable environment in place today is Java. As the "X Internet" takes off, millions of Java virtual machines like Sun's HotSpot VM and Hewlett-Packard's chaiVM will appear.
  
  
• Data conversations: Startups such as Altio, Curl, and Droplet have created drag-and-drop tools that can create compelling user experiences from data conversations. Forrester expects the successful ones to be bought out by Microsoft, Oracle, or other software giants -- companies that have strong relationships with developers and the deep pockets needed to market to them.
  
  
• Service locators: IBM, Microsoft, and Ariba already have launched directories to locate online business services using an emerging standard called UDDI. But managing directories falls outside these companies' core businesses. Forrester sees this becoming an industry-specific service run by vertical hubs like CheMatch.com.
  
  
• Network services: Dun & Bradstreet, eCredit.com, and others already are creating business services such as real-time financing and credit that are priced per transaction -- and they'll work even better with executable Internet technology.

What can your company do now to prepare for the advent of the X Internet? Forrester advises:

• Don't try to handicap the race this early. Many firms already are jumping on technologies like Microsoft's .NET, but it's too soon in the X Internet's evolution. Instead, invest in experiments that yield value today. For example, you may want to add an XML interface to your customer data to ease partner access...and prepare for executable apps to mine that data tomorrow.
  
  
• Start using wireless networks. While wireless extended Internet systems will be cheap, wireless carrier fees won't be. To make extended Internet apps less expensive to deploy internally, start piggybacking 802.11b wireless Ethernet from companies like 3Com or Lucent onto your corporate network.
  
  
• Identify "extended" opportunities. Look for places within your organization where sensing the physical world could cut costs or boost revenue. Michelin and Bridgestone, for example, are building smart tires with embedded processors that measure tire pressure and heat. With early detection of excessive wear conditions, commercial operators can change out tires before they blow -- and the manufacturers will sell more tires.

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